Sean C. Morgan
Of The New Era
University of Oregon analysts say School District 55 can expect some population growth over the next 15 years, but student population growth will probably be much lower and unlikely to exceed the district’s current capacity.
The UO’s Community Planning Workshop presented the results of a study to the District 55 School Board Monday night. Presenting the results were Bethany Johnson and Greta Harstrom of the UO and Beth Goodman of the UO and EcoNorthwest.
According to the draft report, regional economic development and housing activity in the city of Sweet Home will support population growth in the district at a faster rate over the next 15 years than the 1990s’ 1.2 percent annual growth.
They predict an annual growth rate between 1.3 percent and 1.8 percent, with 1.5 percent as the most probable forecast, translating to approximately 19,300 people living in the district by 2022, Harstrom said.
In 2000, the district had an estimated population of 14,021, and the city had a population of 8,790. In the 2007-08 school year, the population of the district is projected to be 15,439.
The district has grown slightly slower than the city, 1.58 percent, and Linn Countyas a whole, 1.23 percent, Hartstrom said. Sweet Home has grown much slower than Albany and slightly slower than Lebanon.
Growth will mostly come from migration into Sweet Home. The natural population, increasing from births and decreasing due to deaths, has remained stable in Sweet Home.
Lowe’s Distribution Center will provide 400 to 700 jobs in the area, and the ancillary businesses will provide even more jobs, Hartstrom said. The economic growth may attract homebuyers in Lebanon and increase the demand for housing there, but the study suggests it will not have a large impact on population or housing development in Sweet Home.
This is because Lowe’s will draw most of its workers from a regional labor pool, without a large influx of new migrants, she said, and the small difference in housing prices in Sweet Home compared to its neighbors is too small to attract migration within the region.
Since 2004, some 1,147 lots have been approved by subdivision or partition, but only 147 residential permits have been approved, Hartstrom said. This shows Sweet Home has the capacity to grow, but it will take time for the lots to be absorbed by the local housing market.
“They’re putting in all these new subdivisions, but they’re not building on them,” board member David Kem summarized.
From 1990 to 2000, more persons ages 35 to 55 and 10 to 20 migrated to Sweet Home than left while persons ages 20 to 35 left than came to Sweet Home, she said. A large 1,575-lot master plan will primarily include higher-priced homes, more typically purchased by retired persons.
With a small amount of industrial and commercial land and without the likelihood of jobs coming to Sweet Home, she said, the community will draw people who are more interested in the lifestyle rather than jobs.
With the cost of the housing and lack of local jobs, those migrating to Sweet Home will be more likely to be retired, with no children joining the student population, she said.
“We really think retired people are going to grow fast here, which is the trend in Oregon,” Goodman said.
As a result, the report predicts a student population growth rate of only .3 percent to 1.3 percent with a .5-percent growth rate the most probable. The report estimates a student population of 2,484 in 2007-08; 2,491 in 2012-13; 2,549 in 2017-18; and 2,674 in 2022-23.
The district has about 750 open seats, counting Pleasant Valley and unused parts of Crawfordsville schools, Hartstrom said, so it can handle even the maximum forecast of some 550 students.
The enrollment numbers will fluctuate, but the main thing for the district is to expect about 200 more students after 15 years, Johnson said.
“I was a little bit surprised just becase of the number of houses I’m seeing build on Long that would appear to be in a family’s (price) range,” Supt. Larry Horton said in “a bit of a shock.”
“I don’t foresee we’re going to need to look at building any new schools because of growth,” Horton said. He had been hoping growth would provide a little more financial stability to the district, which has dealt with stagnant and declining enrollments for several years.
“I was a little bit surprised, a little bit discouraged,” Chairman Mike Reynolds said. He plans to remain hopeful that growth will be on the upper end of the projections.
He doesn’t want to see any more reductions in programs or staff, he said. The district has already dealt with reductions, and bringing back programs that disappeared in the last decade will be difficult if enrollment continues to decline.
In other business, the board accepted the resignation of board member Scott Proctor, who said he will move to the Puget Sound area to assist family. His seat is now open and the board can appoint a replacement to fill it until the term expires June 30. One candidate is running uncontested for the seat in the May 15 election.
is running uncontested for the seat in the May 15 election, but the seat is technically open and the board can appoint a replacement to complete the year, which ends on June 30. Deadline to file for the election is past.
Doug DeMille resigned from his position on the Budget Committee, leaving two seats open, Foster and Crawfordsville.
For information on any of the positions, call the superintendent’s office at 367-7126.
– Learned the names of those who have filed for the May 15 election. They include John Fassler, running uncontested for the Foster seat; William Chanz Keeney and incumbent David Kem for the Holley seat; incumbent Lena Neuschwander running uncontested for the Cascadia seat; incumbent David VanDerlip running uncontested for the Crawfordsville seat; and incumbent Mike Reynolds and Jason Van Eck running for the Sweet Home seat.