Kelly Kenoyer
Gov. Kate Brown announced Monday, July 13, that she is implementing two new mandates across the state of Oregon to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
First, indoor gatherings of more than 10 people are banned, and second, masks are now required in outdoor spaces where social distancing cannot be maintained.
The new mandates go into effect Wednesday, July 15, and don’t apply to the operation of businesses or churches at this time.
Brown, speaking in a press conference Monday morning, said COVID-19 clusters are coming from three main types of hotspots: Agricultural and food processing plants in rural Oregon, assisted living facilities, nursing homes and prisons, and social get-togethers like house parties, dinner parties, fraternity and bachelorette parties.
“It’s when we let our guard down that the virus takes full advantage,” Brown said.
Cases are spiking across the state, according to Brown. Half of all new cases are in people under the age of 40, and there have been more new cases in the past week than in the entire month of May.
“The question now is whether Oregon will be the next New York or the next Texas. The pandemic shows how closely our lives are intertwined,” the governor said. “If I don’t wear my mask, I put my friend at risk. If he doesn’t cover his cough, he puts the grocery store clerk at risk. If she doesn’t wash her hands, she puts her high school aged daughter at risk.”
The state has 12,170, with 234 confirmed deaths as of July 12. Linn County has had a total 181 cases and 10 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic, with 25 new cases from July 7 to July 12. Linn County’s death count stayed at nine, unchanged since mid-May.
An Oregon Health Authority statement on Friday said the agency has recorded outbreaks linked to exercise classes, a fraternity and a bachelor party.
The state numbers have also been boosted by outbreaks at a food processing plant and a prison, both in eastern Oregon.
An outbreak of 20 cases has been reported at Shearer’s Foods in Umatilla County. The case count includes all persons linked to the outbreak, which may include household members and other close contacts to an employee. The outbreak investigation started on June 26, but the initial case count was below the threshold for public disclosure.
An outbreak of 102 cases has been reported at Snake River Correctional Institution in Malheur County. The case count includes all Oregon residents linked to the outbreak, which may include household members and other close contacts to an employee. The case count does not include any Idaho residents who may be associated with the outbreak, as laboratories report positive tests results to the state in which an individual resides. OHA is working closely with Idaho to coordinate contact tracing across state lines.
The outbreak investigation started on June 24, but at that time the case count was below the threshold for public disclosure.
The newest modeling shows the continuation of a concerning trend of rapidly spreading COVID-19 throughout Oregon, the OHA said Friday. Cases are rising at a rate so high, that even a 10 percent reduction in cases would not slow the rise in cases.
“The bottom line is that the disease is spreading more rapidly than expected and that since reopening, Oregonians have not consistently modeled the behavior needed to contain the spread of COVID-19.”
Three modeling scenarios all show rising numbers of cases.
One scenario assumes transmission rates stay the same as they are now, with daily infections tripling over the next month and a similar increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations over the next 30 days.
A second scenario assumes a 10-percentage point decrease over the 30 days, slowing the growth of infection and cutting hospitalizations in half.
The third and final scenario assumes a 10-percentage point increase continuing over the next 30 days with a dramatic increase in daily cases and a sharp increase in hospitalizations.
In any scenario Oregonians must do more to flatten the curve of COVID-19 by taking the recommendations of health authorities, the OHA said. Gatherings should be limited in size; 6x feet of physical distance should be maintained between people; face masks should be worn; and residents are urged to practice good hand hygiene and stay home if sick.
If residents don’t take care to flatten the curve, Brown warned, “People will get sick with COVID-19, and many people will die. The virus is extremely contagious, and many people don’t show symptoms for days. In that time, you can come in contact with dozens, and if you’re not careful, hundreds of other people in your community.”
Paul Allen, Director of the Oregon Health Authority, said new cases are projected to triple in the next six weeks. “Our health system is at risk of being overwhelmed.”
Allen cautioned Oregonians to be careful even at small indoor gatherings with family and friends. “It’s understandable that these occur: You’re with family and friends and that feels inherently safe, and so people think less about taking the precautions they need to to protect themselves and their families from COVID-19.”
To prevent the spread of COVID-19, Allen suggests that individuals practice social distancing, hand washing, face coverings, and listening to contact tracers if they call, and staying home when you feel sick. “We all want life to return to normal, we all want to spend time with family and friends. But we cannot let COVID-19 get out of control in Oregon and overwhelm our healthcare system the way we’ve seen in other states,” Allen said.
According to Oregon’s state health officer, Dr. Dean Sidelinger, Oregon’s trajectory is somewhat grim. Even if transmission is reduced by 10 percent, “we would continue to see increases in our case numbers week after week,” he said.
“We can still make a change. We need to work together to reduce the spread,” Sidelinger said. “If you can move your activities outside, do so. The disease spreads less easily outdoors and you get to enjoy more of the Oregon summer.”