The Sweet Home Planning Commission learned during a Sept. 15 public hearing that the city’s projected to add more than 1,500 people to its population over the next 20 years, according to a housing needs analysis and building lands inventory compiled by the Portland-based 3J Consulting and Lake Oswego’s FCS Group, respectively.
Using that figure as well as the city’s average household size, the analysis determined that Sweet Home will require about 632 new dwelling units over the next two decades. Some 460 would be single-family detached, 85 would be manufactured homes/cottages, 45 would be multi-family units, and 42 would be townhomes/plexes. About 15 people would be living in group quarter situations, which includes dormitory-type situations, congregate care facilities and jails. In addition, the study’s baseline forecast showed demand for 169 gross acres to accommodate new housing, including 144 acres for single-family detached units and 25 for other types.
According to Sweet Home’s buildable land inventory, calculated in August, about 2,773 total residential acres lie in Sweet Home’s urban growth boundary, 1,675 of which are developed. That leaves 1,098 gross acres of buildable land. Thus, the study determined that land supply is generally sufficient to accommodate the city’s 20-year housing needs.
In fact, the study determined that Sweet Home’s overall residential land surplus is 929 acres, a figure determined by subtracting the 169 gross acres needed for new housing units over the next 20 years from the 1,098 gross acres of buildable land in the city’s urban growth boundary.
The report also provided numbers for the city’s current housing market. The median price for a home was about $348,000, up $104,000 from March 2020. At 19.4%, Sweet Home’s annual median home price change from March 2020 to March 2022 was the highest among surrounding cities: Brownsville, 18.3%; Lebanon, 18.2%; Albany, 16.7% and Junction City, 15.9%. However, Sweet Home is still relatively affordable in comparison. Its $348,000 median home price in March 2022 was less than Lebanon’s $387,000, Albany’s $414,000, Brownsville’s $420,000, and Junction City’s $447,000.
Still, the U.S. Census Bureau determined that 28% of Sweet Home households experienced severe rent burden in 2020, higher than the 21% in Linn County and the 24% in the state. (Severe rent burden occurs when more 50% of household income is spent on rent.)
In addition to predicting future housing needs by type, the study showed Sweet Home’s current housing stock breakdown. Of its 4,107 total housing units in 2020, 73% were single-family detached, 13% fell in the manufactured home/other category, 7% were townhomes or plexes and another 7% were multi-family. Housing vacancy was at 5% that year.
The study found that 70% of single-family detached home units and 45% of mobile homes were owner-occupied. All multifamily and townhomes were renter-occupied. It also reported that Sweet Home’s average household size has fluctuated over the last decade, going from 2.41 in 2010 to 2.72 in 2015, and then down to 2.59 in 2020.
Community and Economic Development Director Blair Larsen stressed the need for city infrastructure growth in tandem with housing additions over the next two decades.
“In recent years, there seems to be a greater effort to include these studies (housing needs analyses and buildable land inventories) in infrastructure master plans,” he said. “I think historically that hasn’t been done as often as it should.”
He added that for a long time, Sweet Home didn’t have properly updated master plans for infrastructure, but things were improving on that front.
“Fortunately, we are in the midst of a stormwater master plan, as well as a water master plan,” he said.
He also mentioned the sewer plant upgrade and noted that his community and economic development department is “communicating much better with Public Works on these matters as well.”