1st SH case of COVID-19 reported

The City of Sweet Home reported Monday evening that Sweet Home has one confirmed case of COVID-19, while the total number of positive COVID-19 tests statewide increased to 1,584 as of Monday morning, up from 1,132 a week earlier, on April 6, and 191 three weeks earlier, on March 23.

Linn County had 52 cases Monday morning, up from 42 one week earlier. OHA reported one death in Linn County during the past week, bringing the total to four.

The Oregon Health Authority Monday morning reported 57 new cases, none in Linn County, and one death, bringing the statewide death toll to 53.

Statewide, 31,121 persons had been tested, with 29,537 testing negative. Of those who have tested positive, 867 were female and 708 were male, with the sex of nine unknown as of Monday morning, and 369 were hospitalized.

By age, 295 of those cases, 19 percent of all cases, involved persons between 40 and 49 years old; 276, 50 to 59; 242, 30 to 39; 173, 70 to 79; 178, 20 to 29; 105, more than 80 years old; and 38 among those 19 and younger. Age was not available in two cases.

In a Saturday press release, OHA reported that Oregon’s aggressive social distancing measures have prevented as many as 18,000 cases of COVID-19 and 500 hospitalizations, which would have overburdened Oregon’s healthcare system by late April, according to projections by researchers at the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Wash.

According to the OHA, restrictions must be maintained into May to prevent new cases from rising above current daily levels of active coronavirus cases.

The latest model is based on the latest actual COVID-19 infection, hospitalization and death data. Researchers lengthened their assumptions on hospital length-of-stay based on the accumulation of additional data from Oregon cases. The results are used to aid in planning the state’s response. According to the latest report, which extends modeling until May 18:

– Cumulative COVID-19 infections: Under current social distancing conditions, the total cumulative infections with COVID-19 in Oregon on May 18 would be fewer than 20,000. However, if the state were to return to moderate social distancing (i.e., reopen non-essential businesses while keeping schools closed), the number of new infections would quickly climb to more than 60,000 by May 18.

– Active infections: Active infections would stay at currently projected levels of more than 2,000 cases per day through mid-May and then begin to slowly subside, if the state maintains current social distancing measures. However, if the state were to return to moderate social distancing, the number of active infections each day would spike to more than 17,000 per day.

– Hospital beds needed: The projected adult acute care and intensive care bed usage will remain below the available capacity in Oregon through the model period (through May 18).

Based on the data, the Institute for Disease Modeling researchers predict there are approximately 7,000 cases of active infection in Oregon at this time.

According to the model, the state should expect to see fewer than 500 hospitalizations per day due to COVID-19 if social distancing remains in place and hospitals in Oregon would use fewer than 200 intensive care unit beds per day. However, Oregon hospitals would need nearly 2,000 beds per day by May 18, if current stay home orders were relaxed.

“Staying at home and maintaining physical distancing is difficult and has had serious economic impacts that have affected many people, but the data continue to show that Oregonians are saving lives by staying home,” said Dr. Dean Sidelinger, state health officer at OHA.

“The latest projections are more conservative than previous versions of the model because they account for variables such as longer hospital stays or the likelihood that COVID-19 has been in Oregon longer than we initially estimated. However, even these estimates show we can slow new COVID-19 infections and ultimately begin to drive them down if we can sustain today’s social distancing measures.”